Bayesian reasonning is unvaluable, Bayes' formula is for teaching only.

Following tracks is bayesian reasoning

what is bayesian

Indirect evidence is a common source of knowledge. Hunters follow tracks to find game, bayesians make sense of conditional probabilities to picture past events or future.

why theory is needed

Every possibility can't be evaluated in advance; will never have enough data for an exact match with problems idiosyncrasies. Theory is needed to reconstruct the distributions of probabilities.

Bayes formula is for teaching only. Real life problems are complex and difficult.

In real life math, eveything has a meaning, two alternative path can't be merged into a "mean" path.

It makes no difference whether the event be past or future

If you climb up a tree, you must climb down the same tree.